U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, but posted weekly gains, as investors digested key inflation data and looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Market participants are still unsure what the Fed will do as unemployment looks fine but inflation is still muted. We know they want to raise rates, but the economic calendar is telling them this may not be the right time. In addition, concerns about a narrowing race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, as well as a fall in commodity prices, are weighing on market sentiment. It just isn’t clear what will take the market higher in the short term as the bears roar and volatility picks up...
On a more positive note there was excellent data out of the USA this week. Median household income rose 5.2% from 2014 to 2015, data from the Current Population Survey show.
Income gains were spread across nearly all age groups, household types, regions and racial or ethnic groups. One exception: Incomes didn’t rise for households living outside metropolitan areas. We may have moved from “economic recovery” to “normal times” which is good yet if the recovery is over…further improvements may be even tougher to come by…
A great story I found this week:
“There is a Taoist story of an old farmer who had worked his crops for many years. One day his horse ran away. Upon hearing the news, his neighbors came to visit. “Such bad luck,” they said sympathetically. “Maybe,” the farmer replied.
The next morning the horse returned, bringing with it three other wild horses. “How wonderful,” the neighbors exclaimed. “Maybe,” replied the old man.
The following day, his son tried to ride one of the untamed horses, was thrown, and broke his leg. The neighbors again came to offer their sympathy on his misfortune. “Maybe,” answered the farmer.
The day after, military officials came to the village to draft young men into the army. Seeing that the son’s leg was broken, they passed him by. The neighbors congratulated the farmer on how well things had turned out. “Maybe,” said the farmer.” -Zen story
My Take: Everything passes. Events seem easy to judge in the moment but they often have future repercussions far beyond our capability to understand. This is a difficult market. NO ONE knows exactly how things will play out but there is simply little to gain from getting too worked up about it…
Thought of the Week
"This is my secret, he said— I don’t mind what happens.” -Eckhart Tolle
Logos LP in the Media
Logos LP will be presenting at this year’s MoneyShow Toronto Conference TODAY at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre. We will be presenting as a panel looking at family run businesses and whether the nature of their ownership can be an indicator of equity outperformance. Our Panel will be held TODAY at 2:45PM -3:30PM Sept. 17, 2016.
For more information on our talk please click here
There will be many other interesting speakers on both days so join us and Click here or call 800-970-4355 to register for your free spot at The MoneyShow Toronto! (please mention priority code 041782).
Stories and Ideas of Interest
- What unites and divides America? Bloomberg puts together a really interesting collage to visually explore how America became so divided. DON’T MISS THIS PIECE IT IS FASCINATING
- The Free-Time Paradox in America: The rich were meant to have the most leisure time. The working poor were meant to have the least. The opposite is happening. Why? The Atlantic explores this question.
- Thinking can be really hard. Luckily Buster Benson of Slack puts together an interesting list of our cognitive biases. Check it out here.
- We need to be more humble. Having access to lots of information has made us overconfident, with little knowledge or wisdom.
- Here's where wealthy investors are putting their money. Rich investors have been pouring more money into private equity to avoid a potential stock market downturn. The thing is….public markets effect private markets as they have an impact on consumer spending and business spending.
- The surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought, persisting into late 2017, as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient, the International Energy Agency said. Look for the Canadian dollar to continue weakening.
- Warning! There is a company called Point that is fundamentally rethinking the largest asset class in the United States — owner-occupied residential real estate (> $10 trillion!). Point is an alternative to traditional home equity loans and HELOCs. Point buys into a fraction of your property. There are no monthly payments…
- Bloomberg held its annual Canadian fixed income conference in NYC this week. Highlights included:
-Trudeau should make up his mind on Bombardier aid
-Vancouver housing may correct 10% or more
-Canada’s economy is rotating in the wrong direction
-It’s High time for manufacturing to step up
-Vancouver, Toronto home price gains are precarious
-The Canadian Dollar is poised to extend declines
All the best for a productive week,